Market to Market (April 27, 2018)

Market to Market (April 27, 2018)

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Coming, up on market, to market. Purdue. And Pruitt, give their take on key, questions. For rural America. NAFTA, negotiators. Work against, a political deadline. Sunshine. State producers, reclaim, lost ground after, Hurricane Emma. And. Market. Analysis, with Mark, gold next, selected, very strong. Wherever. Your operation, takes you, or. Who you share it with will. Be where we've been all along. With. You from, the word go. Proud. Sponsor of market to market. Tomorrow. For. Over 100, years we've. Worked to help our customers, be ready, for tomorrow. Trust. In tomorrow. Information. Is available from, a Grinnell mutual agent, today. Accu. Steel since 2001, offering, fabric covered buildings designed, specifically, for the cattle feed industry the, next generation, of cattle buildings information. At acoustical, comm. This. Is the Friday April 27. Edition of market to market the weekly journal of rural America. Hello. I'm Delaney Howell weather. Across, the country has become more spring-like, helping. Push away the winter blues The. Conference Board says, consumer, confidence rose, last month as jobs. Were more secure and for. Some concern, over a trade war diminished, the. Confidence, spurred a few more people to purchase a new place to live as sales, of existing homes moved, 1.1. Percent higher, in march and while. Orders for durable goods shot up 2.6. Percent it was, aircraft. Sales that skewed the numbers when. Transportation. Is removed, from the equation orders. Were flat, this. Week the National Association of, farm broadcasters held. Their annual Washington. Watch, attendees. Included, House Agriculture chair Mike Conaway who, said he will pass the 2018, farm bill out of the house as early, as the, week of May 14th, I was. At this year's no-holds-barred. Press, gaggle, where high-ranking, members of the Trump administration were, invited. First. Up was EPA, Administrator. Scott pruett who is drilled, by reporters, about the hardship waivers being doled out by the agency, and what's, happened historically that. Has not worked well is that do-e and EPA have not been. Working. Together and collaboratively we. Have and, that's we. Use their data and. We make informed decisions based, upon their data and it's objectively and statutorily, driven, however. Pruitt offered few specifics, I can't. Emphasize enough that. The granting, of the small, refinery, exemptions. Is objectively.

Determined, It's not it's not policy it's not subjective. The. Administrator, additionally, addressed, the controversy, surrounding. The approval, of 'if if teen I think. It's it's it's a debatable question on, whether it's Congress or a, regulatory. Response that's why it's taken as time to address that we want to make sure we get our ducks in a row if we take that step from a regulatory perspective. Secretary. Purdue also, stopped by for a few questions from, reporters the. Secretary has spent most of his first year in office walking. The fine line, between catering. To his rural constituents. And supporting, president Trump's policies, most. Notably, on trade, the. Goal. Of the president, is not to require. Agricultural. Producers, in this country to be the only, soldiers, in the battle we, know there will be some temporary, trade disruptions, and I do, believe that most farmers most ranchers most, AG people, are our Patriots, I think there are Americans, first and they, understand, when China's cheating somebody. Needs to call her hand on it Perdue. Went on to discuss what remedies, rural America might have if a trade war breaks out with China. We're. Looking very closely to see meeting. With the saw and producers specifically, right now watching. Pork very carefully, in that, but we don't want to move too quickly we don't want to move in a way that would set a precedent of expectation. From all producers, any. Farmer, knows there's market, risk there's. Enough market risk out there with weather and just general, trade markets, and different things like that we, don't want them to be the victims of trade dispute, market, disruption. And. On the issue of, efis. Eckhart arey offered his thoughts on, the stalemate between ethanol, producers, and oil companies, we. Think if we expand the be, 15, waiver that. Will put enough friends in the mark to make sure the rent prices are fairly traded, Purdue, says another meeting on the approval of a 15 will happen, in the coming days but, gave no specific. Date. Late. This week a North Carolina judge awarded, neighbors of a hog farm more, than 50, million, dollars in damages, over odor complaints, the. Outcome, of the lawsuit will be appealed by plaintiff Smithfield, Foods a, recently. Minted state law blocks new lawsuits, of this type before. The story broke rural, America shifted, its attention from a trade war with China to, its number two and number three trading. Partners John, Torpy has more. This. Week the southern and northern neighbors. Of the United States each shared, optimistic. Views of the renegotiations. Of NAFTA as trade. Talks continue, ahead of upcoming tariff talks. Mexican. President Pena Nieto while, on a trade trip to Germany expressed. Confidence and reaching a deal that benefits all partners, in the North American Free Trade Agreement, however. One. Obstacle for Mexico is the possibility, of a sunset, clause that allows any partner, country to opt out of the new trade agreement after five years. According. To Reuters Canadian. Foreign minister Chrystia. Freeland touted. Good progress with negotiations, surrounding, automotive, sales but. Remained opposed to the possible u.s. steel and aluminum tariffs all, the, players faced political battles, in the months ahead including elections, in Canada and Mexico as, well as.

Discussions, On tariffs proposed by President, Trump, for. Market to market I'm. John Torpy. At. The end of August last year hurricane. Irma struck, Florida, it swept, away lives and businesses, leaving sixty, four billion, dollars, worth of damage in its wake from. Agriculture. To tourism no industry, was left untouched Josh, Buettner has more in our cover story. As. The. Sunshine State limps. Toward the one-year anniversary of, hurricane Emma, fishery, owner Tom Hill is signaling, a green light to vacationers. Tourism. Is a big part of what the Florida Keys is about I'm. Gonna smack this around pretty good and, we. We. Were surviving, from it, Key. Largo is fortunate, that we're up and running again, breaking. Records in the open ocean in September, 2017. Herma weakened, to a category 4. As it pummeled, the domestic, island chain with 140. Mile per hour winds, 80 miles southwest of Key Largo. Impacts. Were felt within a 400, mile radius as The Tempest charged, up the Gulf Coast. We. Had in our facility. Some. Flood damage we had a foot, of water above. In fact where we're standing right now was, this. Deep in water. While. 84, casualties, were reported in Florida Hill commends, local and national authorities for, their swift response and, as. He works with private, insurers to recoup, his losses. Tommy Vick a produce, grower on the mainland and nearby homestead, says, government assistance, can, take a while longer so every flower was gonna be a tomato. Irma, had a significant, effect. When. It hit us it was between, a category, 2 and a category 3 now. That also did damage on avocado fields we lost I would, say, 75%. Of, our crop that we had remaining, we. Had about 60%, of the field knocked over so. We had to go in there and stand the trees up now. They want to inspect. It which is fine but. When. They get to it which is a month or two months later I got to get those trees up now. Storm. Debris also, kept local wildlife purveyor, Luke Kuhn from returning to work in a timely manner. Alligators. Are capable, of jumping, I'll. Tell you what after the storm when all the trees are down it doesn't look like the same place it's. Pretty unrecognizable. We're. The last thing on this road or, were the farthest point so. The, trees that were on the road no one had cleared by the time we got here few days later so. It took us walking, to work for, the first few days maybe. About half a mile through. Different trees down power lines and so we're able to cut enough to where we could drive a truck or a car through. Boasting. Over 2,000. Gators and other exotic animals Everglades. Alligator farm tourist operations, were shut down for two weeks in Emma's, wake. That's. Definitely a chunk of revenue, they'll. Clean up and renovation, moved right along portions. Of the farm were forced to remain closed longer, for safety reasons, we've. Built our enclosures. With telephone poles so, they're very sturdy but we did have a fence or two that you know went down and we, don't want the wild alligators, climbing onto the pathways to, where they can interact with people. It'll. Be about a year but we're back in, a hundred percent back, where we were near. Miami. Josh Smith manages, a 20 acre greenhouse, and shade farm operations, of weathered the storm we. Grow interior, scape plants spring. Plants, stuff that you would see in malls or, office buildings and stuff like that. USDA's. 2012. Census, of Agriculture, reveals, Florida, as the nation's top dog in indoor foliage production. According. To the five-year farming, survey over, 94, million square, feet were under glass or other protection, in the state with. 671, farms, contributing, nearly 70, percent to, the nation's, 563. Million dollar inventory. Annually. What. Happened, with a lot, of the pieces of shade is it split down that seam and, then. You, know it blows apart that comes apart breaks the poles. While. Smith scrambles, to acquire replacement. Materials, when competitors. Have similar demand for inputs some, of his greenhouse, infrastructure. Is designed, to write out the worst Mother Nature has to. This. Is called a craving house so. I can open. The roof and, lift up the sides and basically the wind just blew through here, got.

A Little bit of damage but not much the the plants got knocked over but I was able to come back in and stay in the plants back up and close the roof and just keep growing. Those. Structures like these have helped growers hold on through numerous hurricanes, some. Measure rebounds. Against, a decades-old. Benchmark. Hurricane. Andrew left, over 27, billion dollars, worth of damage after, it slammed into Florida, in 1992. Leading. To an overhaul, in building codes insurance, practices, and the role of federal government. I've. Been, fortunate enough to experience. Both and life. Before Andrew was. Different. Than life after, Andrew and life. After, Irmo will definitely be different, as well. Branching. Out into additional, domestic, and international markets has, helped Key Largo Fisheries, avoid disruption. As regular. Customers, hotels, and restaurants, reopen. Ahead of the summer vacation boom. But. Hill has no doubt the draw of paradise, will help the local economy find, its sea legs post Irma just, as in the past. In. The 40 keys there are no down days you, know it's all good times you, know so no matter when you come you, know it's just different angles. Of the Sun that's all. For. Market to market I'm, Josh Buettner. Next. The market to market report. Spring. Planting, is in full swing however, Mother Nature continues. To throw a wet blanket on the annual right despite. The prospect, of a large harvest, for. The week July wheat soared, 21. Cents while the nearby corn contract rose, 13, cents, poor, growing conditions, in Brazil displaced worries about a fall-off in Chinese demand as the July, soybean, contract bumped. Up 16. Cents July. Meal grew sixteen seventy per ton in the. Softs nearby cotton lost 20 s two cents per hundredweight over. In the dairy parlor may, Class three, milk futures were 17, cents, higher the. Livestock, sector had another, volatile, week as the June cattle contract gained. 3 dollars and 27 cents, August, feeders added, 375. And the June lean hog contract plummeted. 6.3%. Losing, 492. In the, currency markets the US Dollar Index, skyrocketed. 128. Ticks crude. Oil fell. 30 cents per barrel comex gold. Dropped, 1490. Per ounce and the goldman sachs, commodity index, was, relatively, flat at 470, 305. Joining. Us now to offer insight, on these and other, trends is one of our regular market analysts. Mark gold, mark. Welcome back thanks nice to be here Delaney mark, we're gonna switch it up a little bit today and take a social media question right off the bat here all, right well we to start here we have Joseph in Wisconsin, and his, question is with the rising price of oil what effect, will it have on the grain markets both, in the short and long term well. In the short run we've, had a tendency, for soybean. Oil to follow crude oil even though there's no real connection, there and we have we've seen the displacement.

Over The last several months with, crude making new highs and soybean oil making, new lows so, in the short run it can have a an. Effect, but in the long run it's, an indication of inflation, and if, we're gonna see inflation coming back into these markets higher, interest rates go along with that crude, oil prices then, people get a little bit more excited about buying commodities, if there, is, strength. In the crude oil market because, of the inflation so, I think it makes some sense that we've, had a nice run in the crude oil and that I think is spilling over into the grains a little bit as well it is and we certainly saw some strength in the grains this week when we look at the wheat, market especially. The soft red, winter we had some strength here at the end of the week are we finally seeing weather take some hit here and add some premium into the market well. Frankly. When we had this break in this wheat market over, the last week, or so I kept, saying I don't want to sell it down here because, I believe that the wheat tour next week in Kansas, is gonna find some, real problems out, there I just don't believe you can have a freeze. A thaw a freeze and a thought on the same crop and drought, and, expect to have anywhere, near decent. Yields out here and in fact I think we're gonna see abandoned, acres I think we're gonna see a lot, of production, issues along with that and I believe the wheat markets got some legs here now, is if, you, saw what I said the dollar was gonna be making strong. Moves here to 92, cents and, the. Wheat was gonna rally with it you'd be surprised, but, they're looking at some weather in Russia. Being a little dryer than they'd, like to see this time of year and cold. Certainly. We've got a mess up and then the Northern Plains trying. To get a crop spring crop into the ground there I don't think I've ever seen the ratings this, far behind so, I think the wheat market still has some legs to it all right and as you talked about there just just briefly a minute ago you're, expecting, maybe to see some acres switch out of out of those wheat acres of spring wakers that the USDA projected, do you see those switching, into corn or soybeans well.

I Think I'm in the Dakotas, they're probably going to soybeans if they can, the. Price ratio, is still favor of soybeans up there I think some will go into corn in the, south I think if they can't get acres planted, in, the south those. Are gonna go into cotton cotton Center nice run here so, I think we could see some of that shift out but you. Know two, weeks everybody's, talking about the planting delays and we're here and even last week's planting numbers showed, the big delays out there but, give the American farmer a little bit of a chance and we've, got that chance over the next ten days I think we're gonna see these numbers we're, bound rebound, very quickly the, American, farmer can get the crops in the ground just give them a window of opportunity absolutely. That's the window that they're looking for and speaking of corn let's move on to corn, with. The expectations. That the trade is expecting with lower ending stocks for next year's marketing, year plus the smaller, perceived, planted, acreage that we're going to see this year with 88 million acres if that, holds true will that signal some long-term strength for the corn market well, I think we've got a seed demand pick up a little bit here, it's been good we've seen, some good export numbers. Brazil's, losing, some of their crop it looks like on the second crop there, so, we've got a little bit of a story in corn, again. We've. Got to close the December contract over. That double top at 416, we, got close today we got to for, 14 and a quarter and I think was the settlement, that's. Just a quarter a half a cent away from, the highest settlement we've seen on December corn and, we've got the double top at 416, just a couple cents and 416 is really what you're looking for that resistance, level yeah I want to see us close over 14, 17, to really think that we can see another push, ir in this market but I think. Looking. What the corn did this week, it. Ignored the dollar in a nor the better weather for planning, and it, still moved higher so, that's telling you then markets. Got a little bit of strength there, but. It's at the end of the month it's the last Friday of the month we, saw contract, eye closes in the meal on. Monday we're probably going to see contract, lows in the oil and those, are the you know I want to be selling those highs. And buying those lows but. I, think, these markets have got a chance here it's, the right time of year to rally if we're gonna rally somebody. Came out with a long term forecast, saying, June was gonna be hot and dry I didn't, see who that was and I'd be very skeptical, about talking, about that Phil I know who it was but. The fact of the matter is there may be some weather scares here they can push, this market higher and, when you look at the grain complex, as a whole do you expect to see some strength in the soybean markets long term as well we did see some strength here towards the end of the week well, the meal market something. Got into the meal market on Friday which, pushed the beans Neal was up 14 15 dollars a ton I think that's. A significant, move was, that Chinese buying was that Argentinian buying we, don't know but, something got into that meal more than just the funds in my opinion, and do you think it could be potentially with. The strong meal demand we had here at the end of the week anything. To do with a cargo vessel wreck in in the Rosario grain exchange, well, we, knew about that on Thursday morning, the beans opened higher they were higher that night and then, opened higher but then faded during the day so, we know about this yesterday and it had virtually no impact on the market some, were saying it could take four, to six months to clean up the mess down there generally.

When We hear these kind of things that's usually not as bad as, people would say and they get things fixed, quicker than normal so. I don't really think today's meal was about that I think it was about somebody, coming in quite. Short in the male market and wanted, to get him before, the end of the month okay with. With, the Rosario, wreck. That happened will. That give us the potential to get rid of some of this access. Meal that we've been using here producing, here in the US, well, the meal market, up until the last week it actually have been pretty soft and then, we saw this really mainly on Friday, is. A. Primary. Shift in the market it's an outside up day on the charts it looks strong. But, again we made a contract I closed the. Last Friday of the month so, I'm a little bit skeptical if we could close higher on Monday then. I think we've got something going here in this meal market that the market has, a counter. For could, it be South. Korea and North Korea shaking, hands and maybe, some deal being made there, could. It be minuchin, and China making. Deals there we don't know but something got into this market that was friendly and that's a good news that's good news for the American farmer, it really it's really quick I want to squeeze in cotton since we don't get to that usually in the main portion of the program what, do you anticipate to see with Cotton's. Ending stocks ahead of the next supply and demand report coming, up here in May well, we've seen a nice run up in this cotton I would imagine the stocks, are gonna be tight as a reflection, of the, price where we're at but, I think over, time farmers. Are going to respond we're gonna see more corn gotten, acres planted I think that most people would think and high. Prices will generally attract that and, longer. Term I'm a little bit more bearish how come the cotton okay, let's. Transition here into livestock, I, feel. Like this gets talked about a lot or has been talked about a lot over the last couple of weeks but we have this huge spread between the May August and the feeders what's, that saying to the industry, well, it's telling us a we have good near-term demand we, traded 124 on the cash this week which. Is an incredibly strong price at, one point this, morning on Friday we. Had it almost a $20 spread, between. The April which go off on Monday and the. June contract it's. Not unprecedented but, it's a awful. Big spread, farmers. Want to know is the. June gonna once we get the April's off the board is the June gonna move up or are, we gonna see cash prices move, lower I think it's gonna be more, the cash moving, lower we've. Got about eight hundred thousand, head of cattle, coming into the market I know the wall of flesh that we keep hearing about now the, demands been great are we going to be able to see in the grilling season and these are our big months May and June are. We gonna see the demand, suck. Up all that extra beef that, remains to be seen the, market is telling us no and that the cash prices will come down but. My guess is we're, going to creep the, cattle market a little higher you. To watch the June contract if we, closed it under $100, that's. A signal that there's a lot of beef coming and there's, lower prices, ahead but. Slaughter has been relatively strong so with live cattle are you nervous that we're going to hit a glitch, here in prices, and see some downside, potential, well. I worry, about that but, I. Think. What farmers look at is they, look at what the price that's going off the board it's like an old crop new crop grain spread well, the old crop said $8. Corn new crop should go up there well not necessarily we. Find that the old crop will, generally, lift in the new crop and that's a good selling opportunity so.

Even Though we're 17, dollars behind in the next month doesn't. Mean that you shouldn't be protecting, it out here okay really quick I want to squeeze in hogs we've. Seen unusually, cold weather that's been affecting the grain markets, is that, cold weather affecting, the hog markets, as well and and are we going to get a spring or summer rally, well. We've, had these summer months of around the 80 and 81 dollar mark and I've been saying any time we get into the low wage it's, a good hedging opportunity, long run we've, seen the bigger numbers. And the lower prices, in the spring and, I'm not sure that we can't see some lower prices, yet in these hogs I would, certainly be protecting, in my name rally out here there's, something fundamentally. Weak in this fog market that I think we have to be aware of so. With. That being said are you seeing, indicators, of a short term trend or a long term downside, trend I would. Be more bearish dog Sunday, than anything else at this time I think they've got some risk out here and guys need to be buying some, $75, puts for the summer to protect it outside any, numbers that you're looking at specifically. For a downside, target well. Now. That we've closed under 80 again it, opens up the door maybe into the mid-60s. So, I think that's significant, risk well worth protecting out, here all, right and, I just want to finish up here talking on weekly export sales we saw relatively, strong export, sales and the hog markets this week really quick where do you see those, headed in the future we've, had some good demand over, you, know through the hog markets, is, that going to continue I have, my doubts I, think the market is trying to tell us again that there's something fundamentally. Weak in the spot market, there may be a problem longer, so, I, just, can't get too bold up on the Hogs at these prices all right well mark, gold thank you so much for being, here with me today thanks for having me, that. Wraps up the broadcast portion, of market to, market but we will keep the conversation, going on market, plus where we'll answer more of your questions you can find it on our website at MTOM. If you. Need a break from planting, then check out our Facebook, page you'll, find pictures polls. And you can leave our analysts, a question, give, us a like join. Us again next week when we explore how the pecan, industry is working to preserve market, share in a shadow of trade, tariffs so, until then thanks for watching, I'm Delaney Howell have a great week. Market. To market is a production of Iowa Public Television, which is solely responsible for, its content. Wherever. Your operation, takes you, or. Who you share it with will. Be where we've been all along. With, you from, the word go. Proud, sponsor of market to market. Tomorrow. For. Over 100, years we've. Worked to help our customers be ready for tomorrow. Trust. In tomorrow. Information. Is available from, a Grinnell mutual agent. Today. Acoustical. Since, 2001, offering fabric covered buildings designed specifically, for the cattle feed industry the, next generation, of cattle buildings information. At acoustical, calm. You.

2018-05-02 00:49

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