Sea, Storms, & Tourism: A case study of the hazards & vulnerabilities of Cape Cod, MA
So Lauren Jessica's going to be giving the first talk, titled. See storms tourism. The case study is the hazards and vulnerabilities Cape. Cod Massachusetts so. Lauren is doing her fellowship with the climate, program office and NOAA and electoral applications. Research program coming. To us from the Southern California sea grant program, and, she, just recently future, PhD, in environmental social, science, from Arizona, State University. This past May and. It. Worked free free with our fisheries, between. Her. Graduate degree and Aaron's writing promotion. And. I'm, going to share with you some of my dissertation research, which. Investigates. How chronic and acute coastal. Hazards, socio-economic. Characteristics and, governance. And decision-making, interact. To produce more, resilience, for at-risk coastal, community, participating. Hurricanes have been associated. With the u.s. South East and Gulf region, New. England however is not, a stranger, to these events. This. Figure, depicts hurricanes, that have made landfall in New England between, 1900. And, 2015. As you. Can see a number of them in orange, for categories, twos and my study sites right here Cape. Cod is directly in the path of hazards. Over. The next century sea surface temperatures, are expected to, increase, making. It more likely that new, English could experience, more hurricane, activity and, potentially. Greater impact. Therefore. Preparing, for these hazards, will, be important, for this region. So. Pecan extends about 25, miles east and 30 miles. Northwest. Of mainland, Massachusetts, it's. About ten miles wide and its widest point and had 559, miles of coastline the. Cape Cod Canal right here in red was. Built in 1914. To shorten the trade route between Boston, and New York City. This. Effectively, disconnected. Cape Cod from, the state and as, such it is treated as an island particularly. In terms of it the preparedness. Is, accessible. By airplane, ferry, or crossing, over one of the two bridges and that's only when the upper right is the Sagamore Bridge one of the main, Cape. Cod has about 15, towns that are organized into the upper mid. Lower. And outer Cape. They. Had the year-round population. Of about two hundred and fifteen thousand, people a third. Of which are retirees. With. Over three and a half million, summer, tourists, each year, Cape. Cod tourism, economy is particularly, sensitive. To disruptions, like those from coastal hazards. So. The research was guided by three main questions, first. Our the biophysical, conditions. Of Cape Cod, impacted. By inundation. From sea level rise hurricane, storm surge and their, interaction. Second. How, do social, characteristics and, the tourism dependent, economy, interact. To produce different, degrees, of vulnerability. To coastal, hazards. And. Third. How, does Hazard Mitigation governance. And decision-making process. Shape. Communities, capacities. To plan for respond, to and recover, from coastal. Hazard. So. Drawing from. Cutters. Have is a place model and Austin's, institutional. Analysis, and development framework, I integrate. Three local fail assessments. Into a single conceptual. Model. I am calling, the hazards of ulnar abilities, and governance framework, this. Approach, looks, at not only the biophysical. Vulnerabilities. And the social but, also the existing, governance and decision-making, prophecies. All, of which together shape, communities, coping, and adaptive capacity to. Mitigate coastal, hazards, so. For the biophysical, vulnerability. Assessment, I use, GIS model, three main hazards, first.
A One-meter sea level rise. Second. Category one, two and three hurricane, storm surge scenario, that, data came from the National Hurricane Center's. Watch. Program. And serves. Their interaction, though including, the effect of sea-level rise on each of those hurricane, category, this. Produced, a total of seven scenarios, which I then used to measure the inundation to, the natural and built infrastructure. On Cape Cod for. The. Social vulnerability assessments. Building upon the work of Justin. And Colburn, I use. 129. Variables, from the US Census data, American. Community Survey in. A series of principal, component, analysis. The. Result was a suite of indices, representing. Gentrification, and, tourism. Dimensions. That. Are used to capture community. Vulnerability. To change and, then. For the final assessments. The governance and decision-making I. Interviews. With 29. Participants. At both local, and, regional, level and I, analyze those interviews, using a thematic content, analysis. Which. Produced 12 clothes representing. Critical aspects, of coastal, hazard mitigation planning. On Cape Cod. So. While I do have results for each 15, towns I'm not going to force you to listen to every single town I'm, going to just focus for this presentation, on Chatham, here in the lower kick in and Provincetown, at, the tip in the outer Cape. So. As you can see there. Are areas of, where they're submerged, where, water from Cape Cod Bay to. Connect with water from the Atlantic, for. Long term planning perspective this, is important, because it illustrates how Provincetown. Right here on the tip is that, risk from being disconnected, from the rest of the county due to a 1 meter sea-level, rise to, blue, from. An emergency, management. Perspective. Disruption, to the roadway are, also. Expecially. Problematic. Due to quote, the. Fact that we're separated, by two bridges, and we have very limited options, in terms of evacuation. From major storm that's. A real choke point for the Cape our reliance. On the transportation. Infrastructure. If. You look at the map on your right you, can see 50. Roads particularly, Route six which is got thick black lines that. Is the only major highway, on all of Cape Cod and in. Province sounds you can see that these roads are quite vulnerable to inundation. And flooding, from, hurricanes, on church even as low as a category. One in, yellow. Keep. In mind that in the future the greatest impacts to these roadways, will. Be from the inclusion, or the effect of sea level rise on the hurricane storm, surge. In. Contrast. Chatham is not concerned about isolation, like Provincetown, is and looking. At the map on your right the impacts, roads are quite minimal mostly. Due to the fact that they are farther inland. Looks. Importantly, to mention is that a low intensity hurricane. Like a category one in yellow, accounts. For the majority of inundation, compared. To a more major hurricane, like a category, three which is in red. This. Is significant. From a hazard mitigation planning. Perspective because. It's illustrating. That certain areas on Cape Cod don't. Necessarily. Have to experience, of major hurricane, and its associated, storm surge to. Be somewhat, vulnerable to. What. And, this. Of course is going to be amplified, again when you do start to consider the effect of sea level rise in the area. So. These coastal hazards because also caused substantial impacts. To the Cape Cod tourism, economy in one way is through the inundation, of its natural infrastructure. If. You look here at the graph on the right side you can see that Provincetown. Shows, somewhat of the second, greatest impacts to. Its natural amenities from, hurricane, storm surge which is the green bar and with. The inclusion of sea level rise that storm surge in aqua. Chatham. No on the left side. Of the graph experiences. The greatest impacts, with natural amenities with. Roughly forty, sevens just to 64, percent potentially. Inundated. In terms. Of more chronic effects, though, Chatham. Again experiences. The. Greatest impact, from, sea level rises. Anywhere. On the Cape, with. About 32%. Of, those natural amenities, permanently. Lost in that case, this. Is important, for Town Planning to consider, because. The permanent, loss of those natural infrastructures. Which also serve as protective, offers, could. Not only increase the exposure of those built areas, but, can also impact, tourism, which, depends, on the actual presence, of those amenities that is what draws people to these areas in the first place.
So. Like what the natural infrastructure, these hazards can again impact, the tourism, by actually, affecting. Features, and related structure, compared. To the rest of the Cape Provincetown, experience. Is by far the greatest flooding, to any of its facility, and, notably. As much as sixty four percent, could. Be flooded. From. A category three hurricane with, the inclusion of sea level rise to that this. Means looking at the bottom graph on the right. That. As much as 120. 90 dollars and damage, could happen in Provincetown, from that same scenario. So. Just because communities, may face a, certain. Amount of inundation, does not mean that those monetary, impacts. Are going to be the same you. Will go Chatham, on the left side of the graph, overall. It experiences, relatively, low inundation, to the tourism, facility, and yet. Looking at that bottom part of the graph it. Could experience anywhere, from 50 to maybe 80 million, dollars in damage, this. Is likely a function, of not just the density, of the properties, but their actual, value, which would vary considerably both. Within a town and even, between how, these. Monitor impacts, are important, or talent planning, to consider again because. They, don't necessarily have, to experience, a lot of innovation, like Chatham to, potentially, have certain economic impact. And. Of course these, tourism, infrastructure, losses, will be felt more directly, by, those communities, with a higher economic, dependence, on tourism. The. Traditional, social vulnerability indicators. Try to tap some things like poverty, population. Composition. Educational. Attainment etc, but. Coastal communities, can also experience. Shifts, in their demographic. And economic basis. From, gentrification, creating. New areas, of vulnerability, this. Form of gentrification is, driven by the inner migration, of retirees, which, are drawn to these areas natural. Amenities and recreational. Opportunities. So. Gentrification. Can, result in displacement. As well. As shift in those, economic. Activities, social, networks, etc, making communities, more susceptible or, sensitive, to disruption. For. Example, on Cape Cod cause. They are seeing an increase in property, values and taxes, point, where they are even exceeding, the incomes of local residents.
Eternal. Participant, actually describes, these struggles quote, year-round, residents, yo littoral people who have been here for generations and, the. House has been passed from one to the next a lot, of those folks don't make a lot of money struggle, to make ends meet and pay their mortgages, taxes, insurance. Looking. At the bottom chart. Provincetown. The. Cost of living in this the only one that stands out showing, high degrees of ulnar ability this. Is likely because of the Cape Cod National Seashore which. Prohibits, development, within its borders so. The properties, surrounding, it or nearby their. Value start to increase, and. The overall cost of living will start to rise as well again. The demand to live in and around these areas becomes, higher and higher. Chatham. Though you can see sure quite high vulnerability across. All three indices, what. You're seeing in this town and in, general what happens is, that more retirees move to an area housing. Disruptions, will occur the. Overall cost of living starts to increase and ultimately. Those young families, and locals. Can get displayed. Unfortunately. This can create a socio-economic, bias, towards, a more elderly services, dependent. Population, which. Can increase the community's, overall, vulnerability. The. Segment that all found that communities, without a diverse economy are, more sensitive, to economic, fluctuations so, I argue, that a community's reliance, or over. Dependence, on tourism, can be an important, factor influencing, their, vulnerability. To, coastal hazards in, Provincetown. If, you look here you can see only, the tourism, amenities, index is out showing some moderate, vulnerability. Consistent. Decks is used to capture the degree of support for tourism in a town it's likely that it is somewhat, dependents but looking at this bottom graph you, can see compared to other towns not as much. Chatham. No has both a high tourism, amenities index as well as a high labor force structure index, so. The since the labor force in Devon captures, the degree of tourism, employment, as well as characterizes. The strength, of the labor force, Chatham. Appears, to have a more unstable, labor force and lacked industry, diversity.
This. In combination. With. The tourism amenities, index. Is sort of indicating, a higher economic, dependence, on tourism and subsequently. Could have reduced, capacity. To actually, withstand, coastal. Hazards and even recover from them I, want. To point out that Chatham, you can see here faces similar degrees, of tourism vulnerability. As, it. Did for. Gentrification. This. Is important, to mention because. It demonstrates. How tourism. Can actually encourage more gentrification, by. Attracting retirees. To, an area while, gentrification, can, then shift those communities, economic. Basis, towards, more service, sector industries, like, tourism this, creates almost a cyclical, pattern where, the gentrification, the, tourism, start to feed into one another. So during my interviews, I ended, up with 12 coats again representing. Those important, features, of Hazard. Mitigation planning. On Cape Cod and. They. Were organized, into three domains, conditions, barriers, and solutions and, for. The remainder of this talk I'm just going to focus on those that showed a higher degree of importance, and to relatedness, which. Was Iowa's physical vulnerability. For the condition, political. Will for the barriers, and resiliency. Efforts for, the solutions. So. During my interviews, that became quite clear that biophysical. Vulnerability, is a major concern, in all of these towns they. Argue, that a reason, for this is dutiful land-use patterns that have been concentrated. Along the shoreline, putting. People and infrastructure, in harm's way, promised, towns where the pilgrims first landed was, historically, a fishing, community as, you can see by that top photograph. And. Due to this historical, industry. Its. Residential. Structures, and commercial, centers have been built directly. Adjacent to that waterfront, as. A result, quote whereas. Other terms might not have developed their waterfront so intensely, we. Have zoning that is very dense but that reflects with traditional, land use pattern. To. Compound the sense waterfront, development looking. At the map at your right you can see that the Cape Cod National Seashore which, I mentioned that, is all in green and they, own 75%. Of the land in Provincetown. Therefore. Provincetown, and its residents are locked into this one little area that they have developed along, the bay and they, have no opportunity, to move inland or develop, elsewhere.
This. Presents of course certain challenges, and their coastal, hazard mitigation planning. With. Their strategies limited to addressing, their existing, development. So. While the biophysical, conditions. Sets the context, on Cape Cod there. Are certain barriers to planning, the most frequently, mentioned is. Political. Will which refers to the extent of support, for, heavy mitigation. Planning. And implementation. Political. Will is especially significant. In Massachusetts, due to the power up town government which. Is governed by voting at Town Meeting. Now. The town meeting is a form of direct democratic, rule that's been in place since early, colonial times. Where. Talent, members that are registered, voters legislate. Policy, and budget, this. Gives community members significant. Decision-making, power over, a lot, of issues and projects, that are put forth, as. A result, low political, wealth can become a critical, very successful. Funding, and execution. Of any, kinds, of planning efforts a, number. Of towns made it clear that the private, property interests and a couple. Of well being is. Constantly, butting heads there's, extreme tension between them and that is the reason for low political, will quote. It's so personal, property rights oriented out here but anytime you're going to implement, something that restricts, somebody from building on their property, it's, going to be an enormous political process. Will. Close will have the mitigation, by its very definition is, used to minimize the, impact of coastal. Hazards, on people in their property, in. For the communities, to try to become more resilient, through. Different strategies, like, prohibiting. Where you can build in a flood zone how, structures, could even be built of. Course the challenge with this I want as a promise town interviewee, stated, is that, there's kind of a resistance to regulation. You know it's a little bit like the wild wild west out here I think, this is generally true all over although, I do think it's magnified in Provincetown, people. Don't want to be regulated they. Feel like they own their property and they should be able to do whatever, they want to do with it, it's. More often than not the conflict, of interest and priorities, that result, in political, will against, proactive. Hazard Mitigation. So. What does this mean in terms of solution, well. It resides the efforts was the most frequently, mentioned and, this focuses. On reducing the vulnerable, conditions, and improving. Long-term proactive. Planning. For. Example Provincetown. Received a Coastal Zone Management, a grant, from the state to manage, their shoreline at Harbor, specifically. They were looking at ways to offset some of the losses from erosion as well, as replenish, their beaches which you can see in our foot on the Left they seriously. Need it. But. Resiliency, efforts can, also take the form of, policy, and not just project, for. Example in Chatham, they passed a zoning, bylaw. That prohibits. New residential, development in, their floodplain, this. Has been a pretty effective coastal, hazard mitigation technique. By limiting, the exposure and. Known hazard, area of. Course this was contested, many many times do those conflicting, interests, and priorities but. It was upheld in a landmark 2005. Court. Case they. Quote affirm the authority, of municipality. To. Regulate, or even prevent residential. Or other high-risk, development. In flood, prone areas, this. Prohibition however. Does not address existing. Development, so, other strategies, are needed if, you recall and that map I showed you promised town and provost on the Cape Cod National Seashore. Owns, the majority of the land. And. It is locked into that area it cannot go anywhere else right now so. One approach that's, John is taking to mitigating, inundation, by encouraging flood resistant, modification. To, their existing, structures, such. As raising, them a certain amount which, would allow the waters, to move back and forth without causing, as much damage. Typically. Though if a property owner raises, their, home or building above what's required it. Will likely expedite. Zoning, height restriction. So. To address this barrier, out of town meeting, Provincetown. Was able to garner enough political, will pass, the zoning bylaw, amendments, that. Increase, that building, height restrictions. So that those properties, could elevate their, structures, more, easily. Not. Only the cylon, amendment, address, a law constraint. Proactive hydra mitigation, but, it also has a broader benefit of increasing the town's resilience, as more, of a structures could in the future be better protected. So. At these results indicate there's, a lot of variability, and coastal, hazard impacts, across Cape Cod town depending.
On Those biophysical. And social vulnerabilities, and the, governance and decision making some. That biophysical, Horner ability is not uniform, and highly variable, that. The gentrification can, create new areas, of vulnerability by. Changing, demographic. And economic basis. The. Dependence, on tourism could amplify, vulnerability. To coastal hazards and the, despite, the independence, of local governments. Collaboration. Will be needed to better address the trans boundary, effects of coastal, hazards otherwise. Mitigation. Efforts, will always be local in detail so. Even though my results, are specific, to Cape Cod this, dissertation, research the, death research, demonstrates, the potential broader applicability, of, my, half of my hazard vulnerability and, governance framework, for, assessing other types of hazards operating. At a wide range of spatial, and governance. Question. Was for those online how. Did, this study that focused on Cape Cod, perhaps. Situate, within the larger, region, including, places, like Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket it, answer your question there. Are similarities, because, Martha's, Vineyard and Nantucket and. To wash, it to preface this how many of you are even familiar with Cape Cod in general good, yay okay, there's, a reason why we call it Cape Cod and the islands. Is because there is a lot of similarities, and they tend to have, the same similar. Economic structure similar so, social. Groups. Of individuals, and all of them are extremely dependent, on tourism they, come together so, in that respect you could, very well make. Some of the similar, claims I was doing and they would apply in similar ways to those other areas, I can't, speak to the mainland, parts of coastal Massachusetts because. As I, was pointing out these are pretty distinct, in the fact that they are isolated they. Are islands. And that plays a very different. Role from like emergency management, perspectives, and things like that that you wouldn't have if you could, escape inland, very easily here, you can't do that can you imagine trying to get three and a half million tourists, over two bridges, not. Very well so, yes, your question the, question was is the role of the county, level in terms of the vulnerability. Reducing. Vulnerable conditions is that what you're asking yes. The, county does actually in a part, of while, I mentioned political, will from a local perspective because, that's how our town government is pretty. Unique compared, to a lot of other areas again, throwback. To Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Yes. County, is actually very, strong, it's, called the Cape Cod, Commission. They are in fact a regulatory, body which is pretty unusual and they, do have Hazard, Mitigation plans. And various. Things to, try to work. With the communities, to reduce. Those vulnerable, conditions, and find alternative, solutions, the. Challenge though that you're finding and that's what I was trying to emphasize that power. That, ingrained, local, perspective. Makes them at times very resistant. To the county's. Involvement. And they don't they. Like their independence, and yet at the same time they still do recognize, the role that the county can play in helping facilitate more. Working.
Together Because again if you notice with the map, one. Town leads to another leads to another leads to another so they can't really operate, in silos because, again in terms of moving, around they're going to go through another town so, yes the county does play a role but, it is, limited, in terms of how much the towns are willing to give them that. Answer your question okay. So it is a conceptual model of how I did it so this might give you a little bit more than you're looking for but I did 12 at the regional, level which. Was focused. On the county level as, you're indicating in one state individual, but again I wanted to keep it at a region not get up into that very hierarchy, and then the 17, local were with the past I was actually able to interview, with all but two towns who did not want and would. Not, or. Whatever that reason was I mean, I was a whole live grad student you think that I wouldn't be very threatening but apparently, the. Topic could be and. I, had forming. Themes. Or questions that I focused, on and, that was the coastal hazards, and risks perception. That's where the biophysical vulnerability. And a lot of that condition stuff comes out of than, vulnerability. And exposure preparedness. And mitigation and then their extensive, collaboration. And then, I don't, know I don't have it I did. Have a breakdown, if you want to know more I'm happy I can send you the graph that gives you this literally, who exactly, I talked with that's, fully accounted for probably. Would have shifted if I'd managed to get a. Lot. Of it I was dealing with was town planners, in. A lot of cases because they are the ones that literally, are on the ground working with these issues I likely, would have gotten a different perspective if I'd had time and. Yeah. Always more time brought. In maybe a business perspective like. I've thought about it but that was starting to blow up as you saw this was my whole dissertation and this was just one piece but. I think having gotten into maybe the business side of things would have been good at one interview, they. Did have like a committee of people and, one was representing. The business sector but I do think that might have been pretty valuable in terms of getting more of the nitty-gritty in, terms of impacts for the communities, themselves and, the different, businesses, involved and such and, it's not a should say it's not just limited to tourism, a lot of businesses are concerned in, general. Because it's tourism starts, to fall than almost everything, that is coupled with it will start to fall as well. Thank. You.