UWMP Training Module 7 – Considering Climate Change

UWMP Training Module 7 – Considering Climate Change

Show Video

Good morning, everyone, thanks for joining  us for the training workshop in the series to   support water suppliers in their water management  plans planning. Today's topic is incorporation   of climate change considerations into the plan.  Looks like people are still joining, but I'm just   going to get started with some of the logistical  things that we do to just make sure everybody   has all the technical support that they  need to be able to participate today.  If you have any questions, actually, Sophie, who  is usually joining us is not going to be here.   Instead my colleague Danaka DeBow will provide any  technical support should you have any questions   feel free to use the chat panel  to request or ask questions. 

If you want to ask questions of presenters  today, please use the Q&A panel,   or alternatively please use the hand  raising the participant panel if you want to   ask a question in person and join the discussion. Just a quick reminder on the Q&A panel,   you can ask a question at the bottom. If you  see a question that is particularly important,   you can vote it up to let us know that this is  important. Or if you have comments or questions   or want to build on a question posed by another  participant you can use the comment as well. 

So please remember that we're really  going to be focusing on the Q&A panel   for the discussion with the presenters today.  We'd like you to ask to help provide the plan   from the information you'll see today. From the chart we have quite a   few participants who have already had some  experience with the plan and so we're really   focusing on the updates and changes to the plan.  Some of you are doing it for the first time.  Mostly with some support. But some  of you this is their first time,  

and we hope that these training modules we'll  creating and reporting are helpful to all of you.  For our workshop today, our purpose  today is to present information,   some ideas, recommendations and how you might  consider incorporating climate change into   the plan in terms of water  demands, supply and reliability.  We're going to start the workshop  with Julia Ekstrom, who is going to   really just orient us around the plan  and where climate change might fit in.  And then we have three different  presenters today who are going to   provide information that really represent a  range of resources and capacities that suppliers   may have in terms of data and information to  support their climate change considerations. 

So we'll give you an opportunity to see  what it looks like at different levels.   We're going to take a quick short break  in the middle of the workshop to just   take our eyes away from the  screen for a little bit and   we'll plan on wrapping up at noon. One thing that we added here,   given that this is a new requirement,  is to the extent that we have time,   we would love to hear from you how you're thinking  about incorporating climate change resources.  So we'll come back to that  at the end of the workshop.  

We want to find out what is your overall  experience working with climate change data.   And the emphasis that your management,   your leadership may place in climate  change inclusion, just in general.  This will help our presenters.  So please help us by answering  

the introductory poll. You should be able to  see that. You can use the gray bar on the right   side to just scroll down to the second question.  There are two questions here that we're asking.  So I'll wait a few seconds to give everybody  an opportunity to respond to the poll.   As you're responding, looks  like there's quite a range.   So hopefully everybody who wanted to has been  able to respond to the poll. I'm going to end it. 

And just share, you can see that we have a  real range of experience joining us today. And   for the second question many of you are expressing  the fact that this is becoming an emphasis   that you've already been thinking about climate  change inclusion in your work, which is terrific.  So, we're looking forward to hearing  from everyone today. And with that,   I'm going to turn it over to Julia Ekstrom, who  is a Senior Environmental Scientist supervisor   with DWR's water use efficiency branch.  Go ahead, Julia. >> Great, thanks Orit. Give   me a thumbs up you can hear me okay. >> Yes, you're good. 

>> Great. So thank you all for joining us  today. And welcome back for those of you that   participated in yesterday's webinar. So I'm  just going to go quickly over where does climate   change fit in terms of preparing your urban water  management plan. And then we'll get to our three   fantastic speakers, and I'm very excited that we  have them today. We'll go to the next slide, Orit.  So these are essentially the core substance  of the Urban Water Management Plan.   I tinkered with it a little bit since yesterday.  In the middle we have characterizing supplies  

and your demand. And then assessing your reliability. And the main,   the big plans are the assessments that come  out of that. And then on the left hand side   we have compliance with SBX seven 7. We've  had webinars including yesterday about that. 

And so that's about complying with your  water use targets. Next. So there are   other important pieces related to the core. And  for each of these we've offered training sessions.  And so we have I put here climate change at the  bottom and how that overlaps with assessing your   supply and your demand and reliability. And also  can be incorporated into a drought risk assessment   looking forward. But if you go to the next slide,   we have all these purple arrows are all  the webinars, the training sessions for   those preparing Urban Water Management Plans. The  lighter purple are the ones we've already held.   And they're recorded and posted on YouTube. And the darker purple ones are upcoming.  

So today is on climate change but if you're  interested in other topics that you need to   cover in your Urban Water Management Plan, a lot  of these webinars go in detail about these topics.  And so people have been saying that  this has been helpful so far. So   we will have three upcoming after this  and we'll talk more about that at the end. 

Now, in terms of the building blocks of the  Urban Water Management Plan, just wanted to   relate climate change to this. So the Urban Water  Management Planning act requires demonstration   activity ability for supplier to meet customer  demands under various supply conditions.  And so this focus on reliability is important.  And this is useful over several planning horizons.  

Next slide. So we have you characterize  the supply. You characterize your demand,   and then from that you're able to assess your  reliability. Next slide. So this involves   assessments on an annual basis, near term and also  long term. So for each of these bubbles here, the   supply demand characterization and reliability. And the long term requirement   is where climate change considerations clearly  are relevant. Supply and demand characterizations  

also have to include this long term assessment.  So they have to do it by normal water year,   a single dry year and then also of a  drought of five consecutive dry years.  So this is all over increments of five years,  looking out 20 to 25 years. And so that's the   big connection. And I just wanted to show you  briefly, you can go to the next slide, some of the  

legal language. I'm not going to go exhaustive  through this, but I just wanted to point out that   really in the Water Code relevant to  the Urban Water Management Planning act,   there are code sections that And these are all listed out   in appendix I, by the way, that has been drafted  and is not changing much for the final guidebook.   So we'll post the link to that in case you haven't  looked at that. But I think that's a step farther  

along than was provided in 2015 in terms of  guidance. Hopefully you'll find it helpful.  We have it all listed out in appendix I. So first  climate change, the premise of the Urban Water   Management Plan act, it mentions climate change  twice right up front T climate change is one   of a bundle of factors to consider for why we need  to manage resources, water resources efficiently.  Our growing population. Climate change. The  economy. The environment. And then, next slide,   there's another declaration from the Legislature  in the Water Code that highlights that climate   change is important to include in planning  for long term water resources reliability. 

Okay. So that's the kind of, this is  the premise. And then in your next slide   in Water Code section 10631, it gets  into the substance of what is required.   And that's the need to consider climate  change and the assessment of each supply.  

So that's what is I believe chapter four in  the guidebook is that you need to assess or   characterize your supplies, each supply. And then in the next slide, it points to   section Water Code section 10635. And that's  the drought risk assessment. That again states   the requirement to incorporate climate change  considerations into both the characterization   of projected supply and projected water  demand. So that's over the 20, up to 25 years  

outlook. And the reliability assessment is  also as part of the drought risk assessment.  So in terms of where the requirements are, this  is where the this is the essentially the core.   And that is the extent to which it is  described in law of what the requirements are.   So that leaves it flexible for how you pursue  this and deem it useful for your own assessment.  Which is great but it also probably begs the  question okay what's next, what do we do,   what should we do. And that's why we are  excited to have our next three speakers  

go into what can you do and  where is information available.  Because California has invested a lot into  understanding and developing projections   and understanding how climate change is going to  affect our state and also in different regions.  And so there's a lot to, a lot of path paved  already. But it really depends on a lot depends   on the supplier and their needs and what their  supplies look like, what their demand looks like.  Then the next slide that I just wanted to  show quickly, and flagging it, that there are   particular tables that they're not climate change  tables, but there are areas where you could   incorporate it. So in chapter of the guidebook  chapter 4 we have the water use characterization.  First, I didn't mention you can incorporate it  in your system description in the narrative.  

That would be an appropriate place how  climate change could affect it just generally   and water use characterization, looking at tables  for tables 4 2 and 4 3. And the next slide.   We have the water supply characterization,   tables 6 4 and 6 9 go out in five  year increments over 20, 25 years.  Next slide. And then the water reliability  evaluations, table 7 2. Seven 3. 7 4. If you   want to include it in the tables, this is where  you would incorporate it. And of course you would   describe what you did and how you incorporate  it in your narrative portions of your plan.  And so I think that's all I wanted to go  through before we get to our main panelists. 

>> Thanks, Julia. Let's see if there are any  questions. I don't see any in the Q&A. I'll give   it a few seconds to see if somebody wants to type  in or hand raise, use the hand raise function.  In this case, since there are no questions,  we'll move forward. I want to introduce   Jennifer Morales, a Senior Environmental Scientist  working in the DWR climate change program since   2011. And has been with the  department for 11 years.  She's DWR Central Valley regional climate  change specialist and acting specialist   for Southern California. Jennifer graduated  with a degree in orginismal biology and lives   in California with her husband and three kids. >> Welcome, thanks for being here with us today.  

I'm going to be representing today a water  supplier that would be on the smaller side,   might have limited resources, really maybe hasn't  done a whole lot of climate change investigation   yet. Hasn't done a lot of analysis or maybe hasn't  maybe I'm part of the 32% in the poll who said   I really have no experience with this. I'm just kind of starting out and I want to see   what's out there. So that's the approach I'm  going to take today and you'll see as we go   through our next speakers that the bar keeps  moving up from me because we want to make sure   that we're accommodating everybody who is here  today and accommodating everybody's capacity   for doing climate change analysis. So what I've done as a smaller supplier,  

I have went and read the handbook, the guidebook,  the Urban Water Management Planning guidebook.   I glean from it that these are steps I  need to start with. It says I need to do   a vulnerability assessment which they provided  in the guidebook. I believe it's section 1.6.   I did it with my water supplies I identified and  now I need to start gathering some projections   climate change impact projections for my water  supplies and then after that I need to go   look at what are some potential adaptations and  mitigation strategies I can take I've taken on the   fictional persona of Jennville California small  agricultural community on the inland central coast   moderate amount of ecouture rism and we  have groundwater riparian rights, avocados.  

We have a very well portfolio of  water. We definitely rely heavily on.  We rely on groundwater and riparian rights  on a local stream and we get a small   a lotment from the State Water Project. Now,  just remember everybody this is completely   fictional. I didn't want to call out any  particular area. So this is not a real place.   I just want to make that abundantly clear. So I know because I've been working for   my local water supply agency lived in the  area for a while in Jennville for a while.  

And just hearing through the grapevine. I know of resources. People talk about this   went called CalAdapt. That's  really easy to use they say   you can go there get climate change projection. I've never used it before, but I do know that it   exists. I've heard about it. I also know that  we have a really active RWM group in my area  

Santa Barbara county integrated regional group.  I've never gone to their meetings but I've heard   about them they're active that's something  I think I probably am going to look into.  We are part of a groundwater sustainability agency  obviously six sigma came out. But we're a very,   rated as a low priority groundwater basin. So we don't have a groundwater sustainability plan  

yet. We are right next to an adjudicated basin  so I know I can go there get some information,   but that's kind of where I'm at with the  groundwater stuff. I also know that my   local county has a hazard mitigation plan that I'm  pretty sure there's climate information in there   and we have a general plan which I also know  there's some climate change information in there. 

I've never looked at those sections before  but I know these are just some kind of the   resources I pulled from my head if I'm starting  to thinking about climate change in my area. So   first place I went to is CalAdapt. What is this  CalAdapt thing? I went right to the website.  And these 12 kind of tools popped  up, these 12 links popped up.  

And I was like wow this is a lot of stuff. So what  do I want to I'm assuming I can look at all these   I can look at my areas from all these  different angles. It says local climate   change snapshot that sounds  interesting, annual averages.  Maps of projected change. There's a lot of stuff  here. What caught my eye was the extended drought  

scenarios. That's where I think I'm going to start  exploring climate change impacts for Jennville.  And so I went in there and I  selected where my community is.   Said change location. I put it right in the  center of my little community. And it provided   some future climate change impacts for my area. And I had a lot of options kind of for where I   wanted to see in these projections, and I told  it I wanted to see obviously like I said this   is an extended drought scenario. I'm concerned  about drought in my area. We suffered through  

the five year drought area that affected  us, our riparian stream kind of dried up.  Our agriculture, we were starting to get worried  about our agriculture and our groundwater tables   kind of dropped. And so I know like drought  is really like something I'm concerned about.  That's why I picked this. And I had the option to  pick early 21st century drought or late century   drought. And I picked early because I noticed that  happened to coincide really well with the timing   requirements for urban water management planning. Go out to about 2045 somewhere around there. That  

really coincides well. So I went ahead and took  a look at what they're saying my future might   look like during an extended drought period. And I could see that I can really expect   that there might be some serious impacts from  a drought into the future. And I could see that   I can expect temperatures might increase by  several degrees into the future. I see that my   minimum temperatures, overnight temperatures are  going to increase because we grow after cad does. 

Grow things that require overnight  chilling, and I know that will require   me watering more if the temperatures  overnight are not dropping as much.   I notice we can expect a decline in  precipitation over an extended drought period.  So this is helping me to kind of plan for a  range of possible increases in those temperatures   and decreases in precipitation. And  I only chose those three to look at. 

But if you look at the options on the  left hand side, I also could have looked   at evapotranspiration and changes in base  load and run off, very important to me.  I'm just starting this exploration so this stuff  is really interesting to know the ranges of my   possible future on climate change. So my next  step. I apologize we can't look at everything.  We can't look at all the resources in the time  that we have allotted today but this is just kind   of to get everybody started a little bit. And so the next thing I want to look at   is that let me say one more thing about CalAdapt.  That was only one of the 12 tools available to me  

on CalAdapt. So when I have some more time, I'm  going to go back and explore the rest of these   tools and see what else I come up with. I really appreciate the fact that   all the data resources are listed there with  the tools so I know exactly where that data   came from. I could cite it easily. I  could choose which data I want to use.  So if I know in particular one of the maybe my, I  found out that my county has done a climate change   adaptation plan and they have  identified that particular   dataset works better for my area than others, I  can choose those datasets while using CalAdapt   just because I know they work better for my area. So I'm going to go explore some of these other   11 tools later on and also see what  kind of what's going to help me   prepare my urban water management plan. So the next thing I go to look at is my  

IRWM plan. It was updated in 2019. I'm  lucky to live in a area with a robust   IRWM. They have a big chapter on climate change  that's so helpful. I'm going to read through this   and glean what I can about the impacts  to my area from climate change.  And as I'm going through here, I  find these really, really helpful   charts. So like I said, I was really concerned  about the impacts that are going to from climate   change that are going to come to my area  and I want to know the ranges I can expect. 

Within my IRWM plan there's a chart here that  lists out all the ranges that we can expect   in the region from temperature, precipitation,  sea level rise I'm inland we have Groundwater.   I'm worried about Groundwater intrusion. As well it's telling me what I can expect from   my long term delivery averages from the allotment.  I'm in the Santa Barbara region like I said.  And so we have an allocation. And so it's kind of  telling me there I can expect up to about a third  

less water into the future under climate change.  That's something I really need to prepare for   for the supplies I've identified in my plan. In some other charts that I found   really convenient like I said I did feel like a  vulnerability assessment for Jennville that was   provided in the Urban Water Management Plan, but  then I also find that my IRWM has done a very   robust vulnerability assessment for the region  where they have not only identified the impact.  But they've prioritized them. And  prioritized them both based on   not just the impact but what our vulnerabilities  are. They've really identified that Groundwater  

it's going to be impacted by saltwater  intrusion, rising sea levels from climate change.  And that we need to be concerned  about constituents in the water   and then it kind of goes down from there. So this is really helpful for me.   Lastly which was helpful I realized my IRWM  provided adaptation strategies for the area. So  

now that I've identified what the vulnerabilities  are, now what are we going to do about it?  And so they have a whole list here of mitigation  adaptation strategies that are customized   to my region. And not only that,   but within the IRWM plan they also have projects  that they've identified that will help us achieve   our mitigation adaptation strategies. So I know that this is just a   beginning for me exploring climate change in  my area and I know now that I probably want to   get a little more involved in the IRWM. I'll go  continue exploring those features on CalAdapt.  I'm going to look at some of the other resources,  see how their mitigation plan, my general plan for   my area and then I really am going to kind of  have an internal discussion with the decision   makers at my agency to see what the next steps  are I'm going to show them what I've come up with.  We really need to do an internal  assessment about our next steps. 

And maybe assess what kind of internal capacity  we have. Do we have staff on hand who might be   able to explore these impacts a little further  and could we generate the climate change section   of our Urban Water Management Plan in house? Or  do we have possibly the resources that we could   hire outside of our agency to have that done? Or are there some grants we can apply for   that can help us do a climate change  assessment? We really need to look   inward and find out what our next steps are going  to be, because this for me was just the beginning,   just the tip of the iceberg in looking at what my  climate change impacts could be into the future.  With that, I think we'll go into Q&A. >> Thank you Jennifer, I'm waiting to see   if there's any questions in the Q&A panel or if  anyone wants to raise their hand. I see one hand   raised. We'll take that while we're waiting  for other people to type in their questions. 

So you should be able to unmute and speak now. >> Good morning, Jennifer, how are you?  >> Good morning. >> So I like your presentation   about climate change and I'm representing  Jacobs and my name is Rajesh from Simi valley. 

The question is about you showed about the  average and temperature average. But here   when we analyzed something using some model  we looked at it most important part is IDF,   intention density frequency.  So the density would be higher.  But many modelers say about it. But are  as concerned about the intensity of all   the averages otherwise may be low but intensity  would be lower, the models would say. Do you see   this as some impact on the analysis? >> Yeah. So I think I understand   what Raja is asking is that what the models,  and I'm sorry this is very simplified my   summary here. But are you saying that is it  a concern that what the models are showing  

versus what might be the reality is that the  reality might be much more severe than what the   models are showing; is that kind of what I'm >> Yes, that is correct. Look at the returned   period, some would see, I'm giving sample numbers.  Like in two years compared to in other times maybe   those things would see like five years interval. So instead of five year interval you see two   years. So the return period reduced  with a new climate change impact. So  

do you see some way that thing is important? >> Yes, I think it's definitely very important.   And it's really important that we know and can try  to prepare to the best of our abilities for the   absolute worst case. The thing, though, is that  with this presentation where we were at here this   is really for a person or for an agency who was  just starting out who was just kind of exploring   what the basic climate change impacts might be. But Rajesh brings up a valid point that   it's not just with precipitation. It's with  temperature. It's with extreme events. It's   with so many things we've been seeing is  that the models are not, are underpredicting   the extremeness of climate change in some cases. And so what you're saying is very valid. 

It might not be something that a person at my  level of planning for this exercise that is   can be concerned about yet. But it's definitely  something that is an issue. It's valid and   probably would come up in one of our other  two speakers where they go to a higher level,   a deeper degree of planning, where I think that  they might touch on that a little bit more.  Thank you, Jennifer. >> Thank you, both. There's just   one other comment and question from Kelsey who  says CalAdapt is really useful, thanks. Is there  

a default, best recommended GCAM to use? >> You know what, I am going to   let Wyatt answer that question, because he's  probably more familiar with those than I would be.  >> Okay. >> Yes, there are actually   four that there are four GCMs that were identified  through the California climate change statewide   assessment, the fourth assessment that was done,  I think it completed and published in 2018.  There are four that represent  essentially the four most   common projected conditions so that would be wet  and moderate warming, dry and very, very warm   cooler and dry and what may call the  compliment, the one's different from the others.  Now, that's not one model. So it's  very hard to get to a single model that  

would represent the range of potential  futures. Now, the other way to come at this,   and I'll get at this in my talk you've basically  take an ensemble average of all the models.  You construct a scenario out of that and you  can use that as sort of a central tendency,   your most likely condition out of  all of those projected futures.  >> Thank you, Wyatt. It's a nice segue into  your presentation give us a little preview of   what's to come. So we're going to move forward.  Thanks, Jennifer, for your presentation and  

for introducing us to Jennville. And I'm going to introduce Wyatt as he's   getting ready to share his screen. Wyatt Arnold  joined the Department of Water Resources in 2015   and currently works as a water resource  engineer in DWR's climate change program.  Wyatt has contributed to multiple efforts  including this California water plan,   sustainable Groundwater management and  the department's climate action plan.   He holds a BS in civil engineering from  California State University Sacramento   and is currently pursuing a masters in civil  and environmental engineering at the University   of California Davis. So welcome, Wyatt,   and looking forward to your presentation. >> Thank you, Orit. Great. So I'm going to  

push us into maybe the next tier of what you might  be able to accomplish for projecting water supply   exposure and vulnerability using some statewide  datasets that the department has released.  There's many ways to come at this problem.  I'm going to present a dataset that   is sort of our best available information that  synthesizes a lot of the information out there. 

And it might be more familiar to a lot of the  planning frameworks that agencies are familiar   with. And is being used as the recommended dataset  for sustainable Groundwater management planning.  There's a good alignment there if you  were to use this kind of information.   So I'm going to start with I'm going to keep this  in this view because I want you to be able to   maybe I can switch it to be as clear as possible. Background of scenarios, what these datasets   contain. So you might be able to draw  some connections on where you might   input this information into your  planning models. And then I'll just show   live what the data look like  and where you can access them. 

So the big assumption here, though, is that you  have a water system model that your organization   agency uses to simulate water supply under  daily, monthly, annual varying conditions.  So these data are for input to those models.  We're not necessarily providing your water   supply future these climate data and other  information simulated through the state projects   are basically used as the bounded  conditions to run your model with. 

Background development of scenarios. This  is sort of getting at those questions that   maybe on some of your minds around, well,  there's a lot of actually a lot of models   and they project very different things. So what are you actually providing us out   of all of that information? Here's  just a kind of brief picture of the   uncertainty that we face, when we model climate  change. These are the concentration pathways for   different concentrations for greenhouse gasses  in the atmosphere throughout the century. RP 2.6,   2.6, 4.5, 6, 8.5. They all correspond  to an amount of radiated forcing   that per square meter that the surface  of the planet will have by that time. 

Under that concentration scenario. Now the climate  responds to that concentration of greenhouse   gasses in a very complex way. We don't understand  all the mechanisms and feedback mechanisms and we   don't have all those mechanisms in these global  climate models. Some are poorly represented.  So we end up having an uncertain projection  of the future and that's the distribution   on the right. We have many temperature even for  one, even for RCP 4.5 you will have temperature   and precipitation scenarios which overlap with  RCP 8.5 because there's a tremendous amount of   variability in how our climate models respond  or suggest the climate would respond to these   increased greenhouse gas concentrations. So for California, we can take a sample of  

those triangles and pluses are different models.  RCP8.5 and .4.5. This is the changes on average.  That those models project over a historical  period for that red outlined region in   California. So essentially the Central  Valley everything draining into the delta.  You can see by 2050 here, we have one degree to  four degrees of warming on an average annual basis   or negative 15% to positive, an additional  25% average annual precipitation. So that's   an incredible amount of spread and can  result in completely different water supply   conditions, flood conditions, water  quality conditions and it goes on and on.  All of that is actually happening  on top of what I mean obviously   in our climate there's already a tremendous amount  of variability even with the shock of climate   change due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. So what we have here is a record based on tree  

rings of the hydrologic variability based on  the past 1100 years in California's climate.   And you can see there's three periods there which  have extended lengths of below normal or below   average run off in the Sacramento river flow. Jennifer just showed you for the drought scenario   20 year period with about eight to 20%  of less annual precip than the historical   1961 to 1990 average. It's not unprecedented. In California's   internal climate variability, we have already seen  these kinds of extended 20 to 30 year periods of   below average precip. They're rare. It's maybe  a five to 8% chance of occurring in the next 50  

years. But it's definitely there. Out of all of that information,   there's a need to synthesis and use it for  planning and using it to make decisions. That's   one of the reasons why this type of  dataset that I'll share with you has   been prepared. Basically we synthesize that  large archive of information into a few scenarios   which indicates the central tendency, the ensemble  mean, all the models, average them together.  And/or the bookends. We have a very dry and warm  model and we also have a less warm weather model,  

pretty far into the future. But you can still  use those as bookends for any future period that   kind of represent your range of maybe the kind of  conditions you would be potentially subjected to.  So just looking on that plot again, there's all  the models in terms of changing temperature and   precipitation. We take all of that information  and synthesize down to four scenarios. 

You can see we have the 2030, so the historical  is right there at 0 0 on the plot. And then if   you go up 2.5 degrees, in changing temperature  and to the right about 3% additional average   annual precip, that's the 2030 ensemble mean. And then if you go up to almost six degrees, this   is in Fahrenheit, of warming, and a little over 5%  additional precip, there's the 2070 ensemble mean.  And those two individual models  that are to the far left in terms of   negative change in precipitation and quite high  in terms of projected warming, that's the dry   extreme warming, and then to the far right all  the way up to over 20% additional precipitation   and still quite warm, of course we would still be  facing the impacts of declining snowpack and all   other types of impacts associated with warming. However, in terms of maybe water supply, we'd  

have, we wouldn't have as much shortage. On the  other hand, we'd be facing some really difficult   flood problems with that type of scenario. DWR climate datasets developing the central   tendency of GCM modeled projected change and  scaling the projections water supply impacts. 

And it's showing the umbrella how they're formed,  started with a technical advisory group that the   department chaired. 10 models were selected out  of an archive of over 30 or 40 models to RCPs.  Those models were actually reviewed and summarized  to create these four scenarios that I just   presented for the water storage investment  program. And then they were further repurposed for   sustainable Groundwater management program. Now,  even within this umbrella, the delivery capability  

report, which many of you in the urban water  management planning are very familiar with,   that actually uses most recently. That actually uses most recently those models   uses an ensemble mean of CC tag scenarios  to create a 2040 period based future.  So there's kind of the layout of  the lineage of these datasets.  

Now, I'm going to go into what is contained in  these datasets. Remember, all of this information   we're expecting you would feed  this into some sort of water supply   model that you have. You may be able to do  some other statistical analysis on it to   bound certain conditions. You may not have to  physically simulate all of this information but   you may be able to use it in other ways. So I'm going to call it the WSIP SGMA data,   the act. And we're suggesting it's a fine dataset  to use also for Urban Water Management Planning.  

So what's contained? Number one climate  data. Things like temperature. Precipitation.   And then other kinds of well temperature  precipitation on a daily or monthly scale.   Then these are fed to hydrologic model to  simulate the energy balance in watersheds.   So we get things like run off, snowpack,  soil moisture, right for the entire state.  And that kind of information particularly run off   feeds water separations. And we all know  that we rely on a very extensive network of   water supply operations we have a model for that  CalSim. And also we're very set the network is  

very sensitive to what happens in the delta. And so there's modeling that happens   in the delta to constrain and assimilate what  would happen under those change climate conditions   in terms of environmental objectives  water supply in the delta.  So all of that information produces projected  deliveries and things like that. For those data  

for those four scenarios. We provide extensive guidance on   how all this information was prepared. Basically  the model sequence, what specific models were used   and some tutorials and railings how what  output variables come from which model.  Basically all the necessary data is there  to incorporate in things like integrated   water surface models if you have that advanced  of a planning team or surface and reservoir   simulation models which maybe folks who aren't  very groundwater dependent are more familiar with.  

Going into a little more detail. Climate data.  What it is essentially a monthly time series   data from 1915 to 2011. What does it mean in  we're taking the future schedule signalling.  Change the monthly precipitation or temperature  and we are stamping that signal on top of a   historical record. So we're basically shifting  the climate conditions of the sequence of   wet and dry years that we've already experienced. This actually can be really convenient in that   we're all familiar with what happened from  maybe 87 to 92 drought. And so now we can  

see what that same sequence of years would  look like with two degrees of warming and   a little bit more precip. So we can see  those conditions play out and compare   those things to things we've already witnessed. Again in detail, 16th degree resolution, daily   statewide precipitation temperatures available.  That would be for the most advanced raw granular   data that you could use here. But then we also  summarize that down to monthly change factors for   precipitation reference evapotranspiration  and reference to input in models.  Reference data the inflows that are simulated  based on that precipitation and temperature.  

We do that through Vic for the major agreement  flows to the big project models by CalSim.   But also we have that same Vic information  summarize for all hydrologic units in the state.  If you're looking to see what might happen  in a watershed outside the Central Valley,   we have that information. It does  need a second order correction  

using local observational data for some gauge  record over some time period can be used   to construct as a more full record based  on the modeling data that we provide.  So there's a process I can show you  the spreadsheet, that you can use   to see what stream flow conditions might  be in that watershed anywhere in the state.  Of course the SWP/CVP water supply. You'll have  the tables neatly to read off of. If you're a   contractor directly dependent on that information  some agencies obviously are depending on agencies   who get water from the State Water Project.  I'm not sure where you are in that hierarchy.  But this kind of information  you still may want to draw on   in a little more detail that's contained in the  delivery report. So there's that information.  Access and download. Basically two access points.  The first is the sigma data viewer. And this is  

possibly the easiest way to get at this data  and do some spatial selection if you have a very   specific output that you want. But you can also  go on the natural resources agency open data site   and get the bulk downloads of this information in  addition to the guidance and some other technical   details on how this was prepared. To know essentially how to better use   the information. I'll show you that in a second.  Additional sources include the capability report.  

And then as I had a slide at the very beginning,  the payor information. That information is   also hosted on open data along with a very good  guidebook which talks through how those conditions   are, what is the expected reoccurrence of  those historical conditions. I might use   that information in Urban Water Management  Planning. So there's a guidebook for that,   as well as all the raw data. And so  those things are there. So now I'm.  For that as well as all the raw data. And so  those things are there. So now I'm going to show  

10:50. How am I on time. >>   I think you're okay, Wyatt. >> Now I'm going to show the sigma data view.   So here's the state. And here's the viewer. And  over here on the left you have these various   groundwater. But the data you could find useful  is located in the water budget category here.   And the first thing I'll show you is gridded  precipitation in ET. And you can see that that's  

covering the entire state in 16th degree. You can   do a user defined selection of that information  by extent polygon or even uploading your own shape   file. Select tiles. Download that  information from that large archive.   And again that would be monthly information  you would be inputting to your models.  You can also download that information by county.  And so I've actually done that for Monterey  

right here. And I will show  you that. That's the Monterrey   information in terms of monthly evapotranspiration  and precipitation change factors.  When I say change factor, that means you have  a historical observed climate from 1915 to 2011   and what you're expected to do is use these change  factors to perturb, to change that information   to reflect the future climate signal. And the reason it's precip and ET is   mainly this is meant to force an integrated  groundwater surface model that simulates   land surface processes. You may be  interested in the monthly precip  

if you're not necessarily putting  it into that type of model.  Now, if we go to stream flow change factors, this  is the kind of information that you may use if   you are relying on local streams  and you want to know what the signal   change might be in those local streams  according to those climate conditions.  I've downloaded this hydrologic unit. You can  see that all these purple outlines represent   all the different summarized hydrologic  units in terms of stream flow   that we have based on this information. I've downloaded this one in the Salinas valley.  

That's what this looks like. We have annual  change factors and monthly change factors.  And so the annual change factors are basically  summarized. For each future, 2030, 2070,   extreme, dry, wet warming, and plot the  series to see what this information is. 

There's one, no change from the historical value  and then you have like something like a very wet   future here where you have months that go up to as  much as four times stream flow in that hydrologic   unit. As above historical. That could   mean good things for water supply. Or potentially  bad things because too much stream flow could   cause flooding, compromise your treatment  plants. Compromise other types of infrastructure   that your water supply is integrated with. >> Excuse me, Wyatt, I don't think that we  

can see the plots that you are speaking of.  We're still looking at the SGMA data viewer.   Do you want to switch. I think you have to reshare  that. And we have a couple more minutes for you to   go over these then there are several questions.  That we're going to have want to have time for.  There we go. Thank you. >> Sorry about that. I'll   move quickly through these last two spreadsheets.  There's the annual flow factors I described the   very wet model. You'll see up to four  times of a change. On average maybe twice,  

twice the stream flow on an annual basis. But that's a very extreme case. We also   have the 2030, which is maybe slightly more  than average. We have a dry extreme warming   which does show that in certain months you would  have stream flow that's almost twice as high. 

But you would also have months that are actually  much dryer. So you have more variable signal   in your stream flow that can  actually have very dry conditions.   But that information needs to be corrected. And the way you get, we've provided   these full dataset download links as well as if  you go to the open data site you'll see this sigma   second order change factor correction tool. I'll show you now  

guidance on how to use it. But basically you  need to input your own observed unimpaired stream   flow for that hydrologic area for any period of  time. And so that's the only local information   that you need to put here on a monthly basis. And the monthly change factors are basically   copied and pasted out of that information  you downloaded for that hydrologic unit   and basically the output does the bias  correction based on local observational data.  So you can have bias corrected future  stream flow that you could base some   run off projections on that you might  need for your water supply planning.   And finally here in the CVP  and SWVP delivery tables   that's the kind of information that's  already been simulated through CalSim   and provide this range of annual delivery  conditions that the projects are expected to   meet under those future conditions. And so I'll show that here.  

Output time series for different contractors  every month in thousand acre feet   for different contract entitlements. I pulled out information for Santa Clara valley   and summarized it by the annual level. The  annual level, plotted it as time series   maybe that's not so helpful, but you can  also then do the exceedence plot to see,   okay, well under the base condition, the  historical condition I mean, obviously there's   a range of variability in what kind of deliveries  we can expect from the State Water Project.  And then under these different projected  features, what is the change in volume for   a given exceedence level that we might be  relying on in our water supply portfolio   or the average and so forth. And so this kind of information can also  

help you navigate what kind of supply  might be available to the wholesalers or   if they're a contractor directly on that.  And you probably are already aware of that.  But that information is summarized for those.  I'll stop there. Please don't hesitate to   contact me later if you want more information. >> Thanks, Wyatt. We have several questions. Some   have to do with how to take this information and  use it with Urban Water Management Plan. So maybe   some of these questions are for both Wyatt and  Julie to tag team in terms of responding to. 

And this was obviously a lot of  information condensed into a short   presentation. There's a lot more to explore there. One question with regard to that is wanting to   know if DWR has some kind of a document or  language standard language that sufficiently   succinctly describes the input assumptions and  range of outputs for a lay person audience.  Yes, that's a great question. I don't  think we have a two pager or even,  

better, a one pager that would lay that out.  That's a great ask. However, I can think of   two key documents that I think would summarize  and you would find the kind of lay person targeted   language that describes that type of information. The first is actually the I mentioned the climate   change technical advisory group the  group that selected those ten models   based on different metrics and considerations  for California's climate and water planning.   They produced a document called the  perspectives and guidance for climate change   might be another word in that  title. But basically they break down   a lot in a digestible form. It's not an  academic paper. It's meant for managers  

to understand climate change information  and the way we went about synthesizing   that information and selecting models. And it talks a lot about what kind of   changes are expected how to pars the  information in the best way possible.  The second document is the sustainable management  document as presented and some of that information   may not be in any way focused on because it's  on sustainable water management planning and   that kind of regulatory guidance  that they needed to provide in that.  But in terms of the dataset, how it  was prepared and how it might be used,   that guidance document covers that in detail. >> Great. Thanks Wyatt. Is that something that   we can provide a link in the chat. >> I will post that right now.  >> Great. Thank you. So we have several questions  and maybe we can be succinct in responding.  

If a retail agency imports all of its water  from the wholesaler analyzing climate models   and analyzing impacts on the water supply  availability, what practical local climate   change elements and impacts should retail  agency including using in their 2020 plan?  >> You want to answer it Wyatt? >> Go ahead, Julie.  >> I would suggest that if you have  access to different scenarios of   how climate change affects a supply, that for  the local, your local assessment in your Urban   Water Management Plan that you could look maybe  more at the demand and how projections might   affect your demands into the future, which  Ben is going to talk a little bit about. >> This is another question for you probably  Julie. Is narrative language sufficient   for climate considerations or specific adjustment  made from in calculations required to appear   within the plan to meet these requirements? >> We go by what the Water Code specifies.   So a narrative language would be  sufficient. We would recommend that you   could I see another related question,  but you might want to take some of the   tables and if you don't want to include the  numbers around climate change scenarios in   those submission tables or submittal tables, you  could also do paste them as you do in your plan. 

You could do say here's what this table looks  like under this climate change scenario. This is   what it looks like underneath this climate change  scenario. And then address it in the narrative of   how your water supplier is thinking  about mitigating these impacts   that's what we would recommend. >> And this is more of an analysis question  

can you discuss how to reconcile incorporating  ranges of climate change possibilities   into required drought risk and water supply  assessments, how can ranges of future conditions   be presented in the required tabular format? >> Okay. So this is a question so you could   put so in your plan itself, you may you could take  you have your Excel tables and maybe it's, I don't   know I can't remember what that table numbers are,  but let's say it's 6 9 or something, could you do   multiple iterations of that and say here it is  without incorporating climate change projections.  And maybe that's what you choose to submit into  the electronic data portal, the data portal that   we have. But you also include those tables in  your plan itself, whether you use screen shots or   you copy and paste them into your plan. And  then you just talk about them in the narrative.  So you could have three you could have two  different versions of 6 9 table so that says   this is under assumptions without climate change.  This is with these are the assumptions of climate  

change. This is another scenario of climate change  so that you can so you have everything in one   place for your own analysis of, okay, these  are the kinds of questions we're thinking of   that we need to deal with. That we need to ask our own,   ourselves for planning into the future and  investing in possible other sources or other   approaches that could mitigate these impacts. >> Essentially the narrative is there to explain  

how you fill in the tables and that's  something that you've mentioned throughout   the workshops that you can use the narrative to  explain the process that you're going through   in the decisions? >> Yes.  >> Looks like the models are more for  wholesale use and asking about tools,   elements that are available for retail agencies  receiving all their water from wholesalers.   What is the minimum information required to  submit in the 2020 plan for climate change   from retail agencies? >>   Again, we point back to the Water  Code of what is required and it's not   specified in the Water Code of how  it must be submitted and analyzed   how climate change, what that means  to incorporate it or to consider it. 

So I mean it's up to your discretion, really,  and Sabrina's on the participating right now. She   might want to chime in or clarify if needed. >> Keep in mind that this is your plan for   your planning purposes for understanding how  reliable your water will be in the future.  Are you going to have enough supplies? Do  you need to do something before it comes up   to that point that you're out of water. And so  it's really important to look at this climate   change assessment, because it's going to affect  your water service reliability in the future.  And how you best look at that will depend  on your situation because it depends on   what supplies you've got, what supplies  you might be able to get, where you are. 

How complex your system is or not or things like  that. So there's flexibility allowed for you   to do a climate change analysis that best fits  the situation for your planning purposes so that   when it comes to 2030, 2040, you're okay. Or you  know what's coming up so you've planned for it,   instead of just being caught unawares. So that's the flexibility is there for you to  

do what works best for your situation. >> Thanks Sabrina. I think that   answers all the questions that have been  posted. Thanks, Wyatt, for your presentation.   And we'll take five minutes just a quick break  and we'll come back to our third presentation   at 11:21. Thanks everyone. >> Welcome back, everyone.   Hoping everybody's back. Checking in  to make sure that Benjamin is with us,  

since he's our third presenter. >> Hi, everybody.  >> Welcome. All right. So let me just  introduce you as you're getting ready   with your presentation. Ben Hatchett studies the  hydrology of regions time scales from the past   present and future regional Climatologist at the  western regional climate center in Reno, Nevada. 

The majority of his work has focused on  California and the western U.S., but has   recently expanded to South America. Benjamin  has conducted climate change analysis to support   water planning in California, including for the  watershed which he'll be speaking about as part   of his presentation. So I'll turn it over to you. >> Thank you guys for inviting me to come speak   about some of our work. And what I'm hoping to  do is really expand on what Jennifer Wyatt have   talked about and kind of show you some examples  of how you can take available climate change   projection information and really try to squeeze  it and leverage it in ways that may additionally   inform your water management planning. And so I'm going to talk a little bit about  

data availability and some considerations that  hopefully will sort of maybe expand your mind   in terms of better ways to address  your problems and kind of think about   is the data available to ask and answer questions  of interest. Are there certain processes   that you would like more information about because  from the research side, it's really valuable   for us to know what we can make available to you. Because oftentimes there's a ton more information   produced by whether and climate  models that are run into the future   that may not necessarily be readily available. But if there are things that would help you, it's  

very good to know that so we can make those things  available. So that first consideration is really   what processes or problems are you aiming  to address in your management planning.  And like Julie mentioned there's the  demand versus the supply side and   the connection of those two  things into reliability.   But I also want to bring in the idea of dealing  with hazards sort of peripherally related to that   flooding and other hazards that may impact  communities or water resources infrastructure or   other types of transportation infrastructure  such as debris flows and landslides.  How can some of the infrastructure you're  planning for hope to not only mitigate these   hazards but perhaps leverage them into becoming a  little bit more beneficial such as in the case of   urban runoff storage using it for Groundwater  recharge or other beneficial uses. 

In terms of the spatial scale of projections,  typically data is made available in either   a point sense. So just a single location,  or spatially distributed. And that's what   the CalAdapt website will also provide are  these gridded outputs of climate projections.  A big question to ask yourself is what scale  do you need to achieve your objectives?   Spatial grids do you need on the order of meters?  Do you need hundreds of meters? Four kilometers,   10, 50 kilometers, what scale do you need? Because  if the data is available it can always interpolate   to those levels, but at some point whether  or not the interpolation is actually useful   is an important question to ask. And there are ways to produce higher   resolution outputs that are still physically  meaningful in terms of the model correctly   resolving terrain or other land surface factors.  So that's an important consideration to have.  Then we have the temporal  scales, which really gets into   the processes and the problems. I know there's a  question about returns and management and natural  

hazards high intensity short duration  duration how will subdaily, subhourly   say ten minute rainfalls change and how does  it tie into the reliability drought planning.  So there's many scales from annual to decadal,  hourly subhourly time scales. Knowing which are   important is really valuable for us. Another question and something we've  

experienced is do you need a range  of outcomes or a suite of realization   to create this envelope of possibilities  that Wyatt was showing a nice example of.  Is it helpful to know what 30 projections are  suggesting so you can bound what you expect as   the best case and the worst  case scenario and where, say,   75% of the models agree on some amount of change. And then the last question to ask yourself,   which is kind of hard perhaps because it's hard  to see if there are known unknowns but you don't   know what they are that can be challenging, but  are there unforeseen issues that we call blind   spots may not be an issue historically even now  but later could become an issue. That's a way   to sit back and think deeply and philosophically  about what's going on in your area I'm going to   talk about our experience with Ventura County. Putting together their urban plan. It was a   multiyear process we started in 2017. It was  very iterative which I found extremely helpful.  

Included many different meetings with  stakeholders from various agencies.  Basically across the board from the GSAs to the  water providers, agriculture, flood control,   fisheries, all kinds of people. It was extremely  helpful to identify issues with the stakeholders,   try to address them with relevant metrics that we  developed. Revisit with them what we came up with   and continue to improve them to make these useful. And we largely used the CalAdapt products   to do so. But there's a lot you can do with  those. I'll show a couple examples of this. 

The report was released in 2019. A link  at the bottom. It was intended to support   the urban and Urban Water Management Planning  processes. Maybe there could be some helpful ideas   in there and I'm happy to work with anyone who  is interested on incorporating this information. One approach, spatial approach, working in Ventura  County. There's several of the rivers, the Ventura   river on the south side and the Santa Clara river  in the center and Los Angeles county on the right.  Starting with the daily calculations,   we went through a number of thresholds of  interest. And here we're using the CalAdapt  

extreme heat threshold as an example. Which is  the number of days that exceed the 98th percentile   minimum or maximum temperature, and so  we calculate this at each grid point   and what we show here is the minimum amount of  change that 75% of the 32 models have. So this   kind of gives you an idea that three quarters  of the model outputs are suggesting at least   this much change in terms of the number of days  exceeding this 98th percentile minimum temperature   between the two time periods of interest in the  future. And the other thing we can do with this we   found to be helpful forgiven points on the right  hand side there's several different locations   and show the distribution of what all the  models are suggesting. So you can have the  

75th percentile the top of the box or  the median the centerline in the box   there's a pretty large amount of spread  between the models. This gives you an idea of   wh

2021-01-20 13:15

Show Video

Other news